Market Regime · 2026-03-03
Moderate
Risk-off regime. Defensive positioning favored — quality, low-beta, cash.
Risk Regime
risk off
Cycle Regime
inflation reheat
Stress Regime
neutral
5 indicators elevated — review below
Polymarket Crowd Regime
unknown ·Liquidity
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Volume 24h
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Movers >5%
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Top50 Avg Move 1d
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VIX · Volatility
elevated stress
Equity vol elevated — expect wider bid/ask and risk-off sentiment
HY Spreads
elevated stress
Credit spreads wide — tightening financial conditions
WTI Oil
elevated stress
Oil elevated — input cost pressure, inflation tailwind
CPI Inflation
elevated stress
CPI elevated — Fed likely to maintain restrictive stance
Core Inflation
elevated stress
Core inflation sticky — cuts unlikely near term
Unemployment
neutral
Labour market healthy
Yield Curve 10Y-2Y
neutral
Curve normalized
NFCI · Financial Conditions
relieved
Financial conditions loose — liquidity ample
USD Index
relieved
USD weakening — supportive for risk assets
10Y Yields
relieved
10Y yields low — supportive for duration and growth multiples
Real Yield 10Y
relieved
Real yields low or negative — broadly supportive for risk assets